Kashmir in for a long haul for Coronavirus
Silver Lining: “Kashmir may not have the severe cases of COVID 9 infections as is exhibited by the current trend”
Srinagar: Kashmir is in for a long haul for Coronavirus infectious disease. The number of infections is going to increase and it will take months before the global pandemic turns endemic, say medical experts.
“Kashmir is in for a long haul for Coronavirus infectious disease. Our numbers are going to increase. We are in it for a long haul”, said Dr Parvez A Koul head Department of Internal & Pulmonary Medicine at SK Institute of Medical Sciences Srinagar.
But there is a silver lining. Kashmir “may not have the severe cases of COVID 9 infections as is exhibited by the current trend”, said Dr Koul adding Corona viruses infections are very common in Kashmir and there is a possibility that the genetic material of those viruses might be akin to the pandemic virus and the antibody response of those viruses may give the people of Kashmir some degree of protection against it.
Koul was however cautious saying “this is a conjecture as there is no scientific data to substantiate it”.
COVID 19 will stay as an endemic for many years to come he said, “like influenza and certain other viral infections, novel Coronavirus will keep on visiting its hosts at various intervals”.
But there have been instances when viruses died of their own, like SARS, he informed.
Dr Khurshid Ahmad, consultant Chest Medicine at Government Medical College Srinagar is also of the view that Corona in Kashmir may take time to reach the apex. The graphic line has not touched its peak as yet. It will take time to reach that spot, he said.
“How the pandemic unfolds itself in future Kashmir also depends up on behavior of the virus in the mainland India”, he said.
The experts term the Boston Scientific Group projection of Coronavirus infection reaching its climax in September in India a conjecture.
“All modeling data including the one about India (including) Kashmir does not turn out to be completely true. But there is a possibility that the projection may go along the model”, said Dr Koul.
“It is the virus which knows when it is going to stay quite. The dynamics of the circulation is determined by the virus not by our response”, he said.
Expressing his inability to forecast as to when shall the killer COVID 19 hit the highest point in Kashmir, Dr Inamul Haq, an epidemiologist at GMC Srinagar, said “I cannot provide scientific answering to the question. But the curve of our infections is not mounting at an upsetting rate”, he said.
He said J&K’s performance in combating the pandemic is noticeable as the infections are not swelling as in the other societies.
But scientific forecasting about the deadly pandemic continues to be a distant dream in Kashmir as it has no expert in mathematical modeling of the highly infectious disease.