Ukraine Today, Taiwan Tomorrow
By: Vijay K. Sazawal
We are addressing two global conflicts here – oneunderway, and the other presumably on thehorizon. What are the similarities and the
differences?
Both are outcomes of the geopolitical changes inthe last century, the former can be traced back todissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, two yearsafter the Berlin Wall was brought down; thelatter as a result of the Communist Partytakeover of mainland China in 1949.
Both have a common entity that has controlledthe narrative and complexity of the issues – thatbeing the United States. At least until now, andpossibly in the future, the US will continue toretain its hegemony, but the Ukraine conflict isaltering the global geopolitical landscape and theemerging situation may become very volatile andharder to predict. China is beginning to make itsmark globally and it is an expansionist power. Itwants Taiwan and much more.
Ukraine is a quagmire with Russia holding onabout 20% of the Ukrainian lands, Crimea mostlikely out of the grasp, and WW 1 type trenchwarfare in the Donbas region. Heavy humanlosses have occurred on both sides. Ukraine hasreceived and practically consumed all munitionsit has received from NATO countries, includingfrom the US. Ukraine, especially the non-Catholicregion of the country on both the sides of the lineof conflict, has become a vast waste land andresulted in millions of refugees. The US hasauthorized about $113 billion for the Ukraineconflict with about $57 billion already transferredto Ukraine, out of which probably 40% has beenlost to corruption and waste. Memberships to EUand NATO for Ukraine are a distant dream,especially the latter.
Ukrainian conflict, to be sure, was avoidable. Themis-steps rangefrom the NATO expansion intothe Eastern Europe after promises were madeotherwise, the façade of negotiating MinskAccords which were never implemented, to the2014 Maidan coup that brought down thedemocratically elected government of theUkrainian President Viktor Yanikovych. The rest,as they say, is history.
The one thing that is very clear is that challengesbrought about by the Ukraine conflict will cast along shadow on what to expect in the case of theTaiwan conflict. These changes (which are mostlyfor the worse) not only impact the conflict zoneand the people living there, but also affectglobally in terms of growing unpredictabilitytowards a wider war with or without the nuclearweapons, harsh political and economic sanctionsleading to global energy and food supplydisruptions, economic upheaval in the GlobalNorth and increased poverty and famine in theGlobal South. The Ukraine conflict has nowinners. Ukrainians, who appear to be gung-hoabout continuing the military conflict, areactually the biggest losers in that tragedy. A moremature political discourse exists in Taiwan wherethe two main political parties offer differingviews on their future.
It may be, however, pertinent to point out thatthe current Secretary of State, Antony Blinkin,has a personal angle in the Ukrainian conflict. Hisgreat-grandfather was born in Central Ukrainenot far from the area where the currentPresident of Ukraine was born, and Tony’s fatherwas a prominent U.S. diplomat who was veryactive in bringing the Eastern Europe into NATO.
The American establishment feels that Ukraineand Taiwan are front lines of the global struggleto reassert the existing global order. Americanshave brought about unity in the Europeantheatre and is clearly leading the charge againstthe Russians in Ukraine. Many Western policystrategists believe that haphazard withdrawalfrom Afghanistan by America encouraged theRussian decision to invade Ukraine.
Turning to Taiwan, Americans believe that theywill struggle to keep the peace in Asia if it doesnot win the war in Europe. China understandsthat. That is precisely why the Chinese haveentered into the picture by announcing their“Peace Plan” for Ukraine. They do not wish to seeRussians lose in Ukraine, and in fact they seeUkraine conflict as the opportunity to assert theirglobal leadership and lay foundation for a newglobal order.
Absorption of Taiwan into China will be thecatalyst in the new Chinese vision of its globalleadership. Just as Sun Tzu strategized in “The Artof War”, a good leader turns chaos intoopportunity, but a great leader subdues enemieswithout fighting. President Xi has a plan to bethat great leader.
It was Dr. Henry Kissinger, the grand-master ofthe Real Politick, who said during a public speechat the World Economic Forum during last May,three months after Russia began the “SpecialMilitary Operation” in Ukraine, that the Westshould settle the conflict with Russia promptlythrough diplomatic negotiations, treat Russia as abig-power nation within Europe, and don’t letRussians and Chinese build an alliance becausethat will have grave consequences for the West.
Western politicians and news media ridiculed Dr.Kissinger on his WEF speech and he quietlybacked away.But the “Domino Effect” that Dr. Kissingerwarned about is slowly beginning to take shape.
To quote President Xi of China during his recentvisit to Russia when he said to Vladimir Putin,“Right now there are changes – the likes of whichwe haven’t seen for 100 years – and we are theones driving these changes together.” The Westsaw it as a bluster, but many consider thesewords to be the genesis of the next global order.
The Ukraine issue has given the Chineseleadership an opportunity to approach theTaiwan issue in a new way. President Xi’sunprecedented third term is intended to boosthis imagine as a global leader and he is takingcareful steps to strengthen that image.In fact, inthe years to come, the Russia-China-Iran axis willprovide an alternative path for Xi to become the“great leader” that Sun Tzu had in mind. Dominosare already beginning to fall.
Finally, when will Taiwan become a globalflashpoint? Some would say in 2024 because ofthe American preoccupation with the US and
Taiwan Presidential elections, while others say in2025, quoting the AF Head of the MobilityCommand, Gen. Mike Minihan, and the DefenseMinister of Taiwan. Or it could happen by 2027,preceding the 21st Communist Party Congress,where President Xi is likely to be elected to the4th Term. But it may take longer.
I believe the Chinese will try out Plan A (softapproach), and if that fails go to Plan B (hardapproach). Plan A is not an impossibility but itwillrequire global geopolitical chess pieces to movein a certain order and that may or may nothappen by 2027, and failing that would likelytrigger Plan B.
One thing is very clear, The Taiwan question willbe resolved well before the ChineseConstitutionally mandated deadline of 2049.
The long game is on.
Thank you.
(www.KashmirForum.org)
The writer is a PhD scholar
