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A clear alarm for BJP from UP, Bihar

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By: Mushtaq Hurra

The verdict of recent by-elections for three Lok-Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar punctured the bandwagon of BJP and has caused ripples among the party cadres. Though this loss won’t disrupt the Modi dispensation for it is far ahead of the magical figure of 273 in the lower house of Indian parliament, but according to political pundits and analysts, the these defeats will certainly impact the upcoming 2019 general elections in India. It is pertinent to mention here that the two Lok-Sabha seats in Yogi’s homeland Utter Pradesh, were left vacant by the induction of Yogi Adityanath and Keshwar Prasad Mourya as CM and deputy CM respectively into the state cabinet. The two constituencies are believed to be the hub of Hindu fanaticism and stronghold of BJP. It is not lesser than a miracle because BJP’s unprecedented and exemplary success in 2014 general elections and 2017 assembly elections in UP had almost wiped off other national and regional parties from the scene.

Analysts and observers attribute this miracle to the unorthodox poll alignment of BSP and SP in Uttar Pradesh. It is important to mention here that it is the same province where BJP had achieved a clean sweep by grabbing 73 seats out 80.According to political observers and analysts, this alliance can pose serious threat to BJP’s stronghold in Uttar Pradesh subject to its strength and continuity. Some rumors are surfacing in political circles that prime minister Narendra Modi will not contest the upcoming 2019 general elections from his Banaras constituency rather will try his luck from a safe bastion in his homeland, Gujrat.

There were two principles behind BJP’s massive success in 2014 i.e, Hindutva ideology and development. Though, it managed to win the mandate in the name of religious fanaticism in 2014 but could not convert its vision and promise into reality. Abrogation of article 370, Construction of Ram temple at Ayodhya and other issues pertaining to Hindu Fundamentalism remained yet to be achieved. Its pledge to make India a Hindu nation proved a hoax. The rhetoric seems to be insufficient for 2019 to mould Indian electorate in the name of religion, again.

Communalism and religious fanaticism has been growing at an alarming rate during Modi’s tenure and cow vigilantism has proven counterproductive as well. Gau goons have unleashed a reign of terror in the name of cow protection and minorities in general and Muslims in particular are facing the brunt of this belligerent and bizarre politics. Even Dalits are facing the terrible impacts of Communal and caste based violence. Thus, a peaceful and a secure environment for commoners remained confined to speeches and assurances Only. It has exposed Modi’s hypocrisy, and tarnished his image very badly.

Modi led BJP government also failed miserably to curb the menace of exploitation of women in the country as women are feeling unsafe and insecure as goons and road romeos have been given a free hand to tear apart the chastity of women. Number of forced rapes, gang-rapes, domestic violence, acid attacks have surfaced and are increasing in the so-called largest democracy of the world. Thomson Reuters corporation; a Canadian multinational mass media and information firm, has declared India as the most unsafe country in the world for women. How would women react to such facts and will it show in the forthcoming elections remains to be seen.

On the developmental front too, Modi led government could not make a big difference. Swachh Bharat Abhiyan, make in India like many other flagship programs could not produce the desired results. Demonetization drive that was launched to purge black money from the economy by removing almost 86% cash in circulation, proved to be a curse in disguise for Indian economy.

India is a country of villages and the villagers are mostly farmers. Demonetization hit the farmers badly as they failed to purchase the essential commodities of farming like seeds, fertilizers etc and thus, the 70% populace of the country has a major role in the exaltation and decline of a political party in the country. They are detrimental in forecasting the fate of parties and leaders. Farmers in India crying, wailing, and extremely annoyed with Modi led political dispensation and its policies. Their agricultural yield is either spoiling in Mandies or godowns. Expensive bank loans have broken their backs.They are under the huge burden of debts.Thus, the suicidal rate among them is increasing, and they are unhappy with Modi and company.

Modi’s promise to credit rupees 15 lakh in every citizen’s bank account, was a big and boastful slogan of BJP’s election manifesto and campaign in 2014 general elections across the country as Modi had vowed to bring back the black money in foreign banks. This promise proved fake as the government is about to reach to its culmination but not a single penny has been credited to the account numbers of Indian citizens. Even BJP’s close ally Shivsena castigated PM Modi for his broken promise.

Corruption is attaining new heights and proportions under Modi’s rule.The monster is about to gallop the people.According to the corruption index published by ‘ Transparency International ‘ India was ranked 79th in the list of the most corrupt countries of the world  in the year 2016, while as it dropped by two notches to 81st in 2017.According to a recent survey in the country, corruption has increased during Modi’s tenure.The survey was carried out in 13 Indian states including the six ruled by BJP.It stated that 75% Indian households believe that corruption has either increased or remained the same during the last 12 months.

Modi’s promise to setup Lokpal in the country proved a hoax. Famous social activist and the anti-corruption crusader, Anna Hazaare has castigated Modi for not appointing a Lokayukt though the Lokpal bill has been passed by Indian Parliament way back in December 2013.Mr. Hazaare has threatened to stir the agitation from 2nd October this year if the government fails to enforce the law.

Modi’s popularity is declining in the country as he failed miserably to put his vision into reality. According to some online surveys, Modi’s chances of winning the 2019 general elections have come down from 65% to 50%. The recent rejection of Islamic extremism and fundamentalism in Pakistan, will definitely shape up the mindset of Indian electorate.

Main opposition parties and leaders in the country are busy in preparing a grand platform to halt BJP’s ambitious approach and run.The platform is gaining momentum, and many national and regional anti-BJP political parties have shown interest to join the platform.Rahul Ghandi of Indian national Congress and and other bigwigs from the opposition camp, are working hard to bring all the non-BJP idealogists on this platform.

Teleghu Desham party (TDP) in Andhrapradesh, not only broke apart from the NDA rather moved a no-confidence motion against BJP government in Lok-Sabha which was rejected, as 325 members voted in favor of Modi while as only 126 members out of 451 members Present in the  house. Though, this attempt didn’t cause any damage to Modi led political dispensation in the country but sent alarming signals to BJP camp.Another shocker came for BJP, when its oldest ally Shivsena ruled out any pre-poll alliance with BJP in the next year’s general elections. Though , it is difficult to predict the biggest political verdict of the country , and it would be immature rule out Modi and company from the scene but a change in the country’s political environs is on cards. It has been wisely said that coming events cast their shadows before. Can Modi spread his magic again or will it be curtains for him in the next year’s general elections? Time will unfold every mystery.

The writer teaches at Middle school Poshwari, zone Hajin, and can be reached at [email protected]

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