New Delhi: India is likely to receive above-normal rainfall in September, capping a season that has already seen several disasters triggered by heavy downpours in many parts of the country.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that the monthly average rainfall in September 2025 is expected to be more than 109 per cent of the long-period average of 167.9 mm.
The forecast suggests most regions will get normal to above-normal rainfall, while some parts of the northeast and east, many areas of extreme south peninsular India and pockets of northwest India are likely to record below-normal rain.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra warned that heavy rainfall may trigger landslides and flash floods in Uttarakhand in September and could disrupt normal life in south Haryana, Delhi and north Rajasthan.
“Many rivers originate in Uttarakhand. So, heavy rainfall means many rivers will be flooded and it will impact cities and towns downstream. So, we should keep this in mind,” he said.
He added that heavy rainfall is also expected in the upper catchment areas of the Mahanadi River in Chhattisgarh.
Mohapatra said there is a slight increasing trend in September rainfall since 1980, barring less rainfall in the month in 1986, 1991, 2001, 2004, 2010, 2015 and 2019.
The IMD said that monthly average maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal in many regions of west-central, northwest and south India during September.
However, they are likely to be above normal over several parts of east-central, east and northeast India, as well as some areas of northwest India and the western coastal region.
India received 743.1 mm of rainfall between June 1 and August 31, about 6 per cent above the long-period average of 700.7 mm, IMD data show.
June rainfall was 180 mm, around 9 per cent above normal, with large surpluses in northwest and central India. July brought 294.1 mm, around 5 per cent above normal, led by a 22 per cent surplus in central India.
August added 268.1 mm, 5.2 per cent above normal.
Mohapatra said Northwest India recorded 265 mm of rainfall in August, the highest for the month since 2001 and the 13th highest since 1901.
The region has experienced above normal rainfall in all three months of the monsoon season so far. Cumulatively, northwest India has received 614.2 mm of rain between June 1 and August 31, about 27 per cent higher than the normal of 484.9 mm.
South Peninsular India recorded 250.6 mm of rainfall in August, about 31 per cent above normal, making it the third highest for the month since 2001 and the eighth highest since 1901, according to the IMD.
Cumulatively, the region received 607.7 mm of rain between June 1 and August 31 against the normal of 556.2 mm, a surplus of 9.3 per cent.
The unusually high rainfall coincided with a series of extreme weather events.
Punjab suffered its worst flooding in decades, with swollen rivers and breached canals inundating thousands of hectares of farmland and displacing lakhs of people.
In the Himalayan states of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir, cloudbursts and flash floods triggered landslides and caused widespread damage to life and property.
The IMD attributed the surplus rain to active monsoon conditions supported by frequent western disturbances that enhanced rainfall over the region.
Mohapatra said active western disturbances between July 28 and August 14 triggered heavy to very heavy rain over the western Himalayas and adjoining plains, causing a flash flood and landslide in Uttarkashi on August 5 and major riverine floods in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
He said the monsoon revived rapidly from August 14, with four low-pressure systems sustaining active conditions for 15 days in the second half of the month.
The IMD chief said northwest India and adjoining western Himalayan states experienced “extremely and exceptionally heavy rainfall events” between August 21 and 27 due to successive active western disturbances and strong monsoonal winds.
He said that very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall occurred over east Rajasthan from August 22 to 24 and over Punjab and Haryana from August 23 to 26, while Jammu and Kashmir from August 23 to 27 saw landslides in Katra and severe flooding in Jammu, Punjab and parts of Rajasthan.
Exceptionally heavy rainfall was also recorded in Konkan and the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra on August 20, in east Rajasthan on August 23, in the Jammu region on August 27 and in Telangana on August 28.
Mohapatra said the events were driven by “the slow movement of two successive very active western disturbances, interaction with remnants of monsoonal low-pressure systems, strong southerly winds with moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea and formation of two low-pressure systems over north Bay of Bengal and their movement across central India”.
