In Ruhulla’s Resignation, Has New Delhi Killed Two Birds with One Stone?

In Kashmir, political resignations are seldom simple departures. They are announcements, accusations, provocations and sometimes the beginning of entirely new political equations. But Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi’s resignation from the National Conference and Parliament on November 3 has produced an intriguing question: Has New Delhi managed to kill two birds with one stone?

The first bird is the National Conference. The second, perhaps, Ruhullah himself.

What makes this possibility worth examining is not merely the resignation, but what followed – or, more precisely, what BJP national vice-president Ram Madhav chose to say about it.

Speaking to journalists, Madhav declared that Ruhullah was holding his Budgam rally with the blessings of “our people.” In the same breath, he maintained that the BJP had nothing to do with the National Conference’s internal affairs.

What an extraordinary juxtaposition!

If the BJP has nothing to do with the affair, what exactly were those blessings? Who offered them? What form did they take? And why did Madhav consider it necessary to disclose them publicly?

These questions deserve answers, not because Madhav’s remarks establish any conspiracy – they do not – but because politics is as much about perception as participation.

The First Bird: National Conference

Ruhullah’s resignation could hardly have come at a more inconvenient moment for the National Conference.

Omar Abdullah’s government is already confronting internal disagreements, questions over ministerial appointments and criticism concerning its electoral commitments. Ruhullah’s departure has now transformed an internal ideological disagreement into an open political rupture.

He was no ordinary dissenter. As the party’s Srinagar parliamentarian, a prominent Shia leader and an outspoken critic of the August 2019 constitutional changes, Ruhullah represented a distinct voice within the NC.

His central allegation was that the leadership had softened its position towards New Delhi while failing to pursue its political promises with sufficient determination.

The NC rejects his accusations. But the disagreement has become impossible to conceal.

For the BJP, which has struggled to establish an electoral foothold in the Kashmir Valley, such fragmentation presents an obvious political opportunity. A divided regional party has less freedom to concentrate on its political adversaries.

And here lies the first possible advantage for New Delhi: an NC occupied with its own divisions rather than presenting a united political challenge.

But the second possibility is even more fascinating.

The Second Bird: Ruhullah Himself

For months, Ruhullah had cultivated an image of uncompromising political opposition. He questioned his own leadership, defended constitutional protections and accused the NC of abandoning the political commitments on which it sought votes.

Then came Madhav’s statement.

With a few words about BJP-associated blessings, an entirely different narrative entered public debate.

Was Ruhullah’s rebellion entirely independent? Was someone encouraging him? Was his confrontation with the NC inadvertently advancing the BJP’s interests?

Notice the distinction. None of these questions proves that Ruhullah acted at the BJP’s behest. Indeed, he has categorically rejected the insinuation and reiterated his opposition to BJP policies.

Nevertheless, Madhav’s remark supplied Ruhullah’s critics with political ammunition.

The NC promptly questioned the implications of the statement. The rebel who had accused his party of accommodating the BJP suddenly found himself answering questions about an alleged BJP connection.

That is the second possible political dividend: the weakening of Ruhullah’s independent political image without requiring evidence of any actual collaboration.

Why Did Madhav Speak?

Ram Madhav is not an inexperienced political commentator. He played a significant role in the negotiations that produced the PDP-BJP coalition government in Jammu and Kashmir in 2015.

He understands the political sensitivities of Kashmir.

That makes his choice of words especially interesting.

If Madhav merely intended to celebrate divisions within the NC, he could have said so. If he wished to distance the BJP from the controversy, he could have stopped at denying involvement.

Instead, he introduced the curious expression “blessings of our people.”

Was it an offhand remark, a reference to informal sympathisers, or a deliberate attempt to influence how Ruhullah’s resignation would be interpreted?

We do not know.

What we do know is that the remark shifted part of the discussion away from Ruhullah’s accusations against the NC and towards the credibility of Ruhullah himself.

And that shift matters.

Has Ruhullah Committed Political Suicide?

With his Shia support base reportedly dwindling even in Budgam, has Ruhullah miscalculated his political strength? Could this resignation, rather than launching a new chapter, mark his political end? Without the National Conference’s organisational machinery, and with Ram Madhav’s remarks casting fresh doubts over his independence, can Ruhullah sustain political relevance beyond his traditional constituency?

The Politics of Suspicion

Kashmir has a peculiar political vulnerability. Almost every major political disagreement eventually generates allegations about who is working for whom.

A politician who speaks to New Delhi risks being called compromised. One who confronts New Delhi risks being accused of secretly assisting another political arrangement.

The result is a political atmosphere in which suspicion can become more powerful than evidence.

Ruhullah’s resignation should have provoked a serious debate about the NC’s promises, its performance in government and its approach to constitutional questions.

Instead, part of the discussion has become an argument over Madhav’s mysterious blessings.

That does not absolve Ruhullah of political accountability. Nor does it make the NC’s grievances imaginary. Both deserve rigorous scrutiny.

But New Delhi’s alleged involvement cannot be treated as established merely because a BJP leader made an ambiguous statement.

Kashmir’s Political Parallels: Popularity, Proximity and Suspicion

Two Birds, One Question

Perhaps Ruhullah resigned entirely out of conviction. Perhaps Madhav was simply exploiting an unexpected political opportunity. Perhaps the BJP had no role whatsoever in producing the rupture.

Even then, the political consequences could be significant.

The National Conference faces an embarrassing division. Ruhullah faces questions about his independence. And the BJP can observe both controversies without formally accepting responsibility for either.

That is precisely why Madhav’s remarks deserve closer examination.

New Delhi did not necessarily have to engineer the resignation to benefit from it. Nor did it have to establish a connection with Ruhullah to introduce doubts about his political independence.

Whether either advantage endures remains uncertain.

But the bitter truth is this: in Kashmir’s politics, an adversary’s division can be an opportunity, and a carefully chosen remark can become a controversy in its own right.

The question is not whether New Delhi has already killed two birds with one stone.

The question is whether Kashmir’s political leadership is allowing one stone to hit them both.