New Delhi: India’s imports of Russian crude are running around 1.8 million barrels per day in September, broadly steady from August but below July levels, as refinery maintenance and stronger Chinese buying curbed Russian flows, while Middle Eastern suppliers stepped in to fill the gap.
India imported 2.82 million bpd of Russian crude in August, which slipped to 2.08 million bpd in August, according to data from global commodities data and analytics firm Kpler.
Iraq and Saudi Arabia made up for the drop in Russian volumes. Iraq supplied some 505,000 bpd of crude this month, up from 163,000 in August. Saudi volumes also rose to 576,000 bpd in September from 347,000 bpd last month. The UAE supplied 522,000 bpd, largely unchanged from 546,000 bpd in August.
Nikhil Dubey, Lead Analyst for Refining at Kpler, said the decline in Russian imports in August was also linked to lower Russian exports following disruptions to export infrastructure.
The lost volumes were largely replaced by Middle Eastern crude, highlighting the role of the region as an alternative source for Indian refiners.
The outlook for Russian supplies could become more complicated if the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 results in tougher restrictions on countries continuing to buy Russian oil.
India has consistently emphasised energy security as a priority, and a significant reduction in Russian crude purchases is unlikely in the near term while the physical oil market remains tight, he said.
India became an important buyer of Russian crude since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when Western sanctions and a price cap regime prompted Russia to redirect more of its oil toward Asian buyers. Russian barrels have subsequently become an important part of India’s crude supply mix.
Dubey said any move by India to significantly reduce purchases could increase competition among Asian and other refiners for alternative supplies, potentially putting upward pressure on crude prices and differentials.
India, he said, can technically replace Russian crude, although the shift would come at a cost.
Russian barrels made up a relatively small part of India’s crude diet before 2022, when the country relied much more heavily on Middle Eastern supplies. A reduction in Russian flows could therefore push Indian refiners back toward those traditional suppliers.
But replacing Russian barrels would tighten the global market for medium-grade crude, increasing competition for Middle Eastern grades and potentially raising the cost of procurement.
“The real question is not replacement, but the cost of replacement,” he said.
The ultimate impact would depend on market conditions at the time, including the availability of medium-grade crude, crude differentials and freight rates.
For India, the issue is less about whether Russian crude can physically be replaced than how much refiners would have to pay to secure alternative barrels.
A sustained reduction in Russian exports to India could therefore have implications beyond bilateral trade, tightening competition for Middle Eastern crude and potentially supporting global oil prices.
For now, with Russian imports running near 1.8 million barrels per day and Middle Eastern suppliers absorbing much of the recent shortfall, the Indian market appears to be adjusting rather than undergoing a wholesale shift away from Russian crude.
