Srinagar: Jammu and Kashmir witnessed a seventh consecutive rainfall-deficient winter this year, with a 65 percent departure from the normal.
The Kishtwar and Shopian districts recorded an alarming deficit this winter at 90 percent and 82 percent, respectively.
“Jammu and Kashmir has recorded its seventh straight winter rainfall deficit, with the core winter period December 2025 to February 2026 ending at a 65 per cent departure from the normal,” @Kashmir_Weather, run by independent forecaster Faizan Arif posted on X.
Arif said the region received just 100.6 mm of precipitation against a normal of 284.9 mm during the three months.
The independent forecaster said that December, with a departure of 78 percent, saw the actual rainfall of 13.0 mm against the normal of 59.4 mm.
January witnessed an actual of 73.4 mm against the normal of 95.1 mm — a departure of 23 percent, he said, adding that some Western Disturbance activity in the month prevented a total seasonal collapse.
With a departure of 89 percent, in February, the actual rainfall was 14.2 mm compared to the normal 130.4 mm.
“February turned disastrous. With a nearly 90 percent deficit, it was one of the driest February months in the recent record. This sharp collapse dragged the entire winter seasonal total down to minus 65 percent,” the forecaster said.
According to district-wise data, Kishtwar district in the region had the highest rainfall deficit this winter at 90 percent, followed by Shopian at 82 percent.
Srinagar and Jammu districts remained 64 percent rainfall deficit, Arif added.
According to him, the data confirms that every winter since 2019-20 has ended below normal, making this the seventh consecutive deficient winter season in the state.
The winter of 2019-20 saw a 20 percent deficit, 2020-21 (37 percent), 2021-22 (8 percent), 2022-23 (34 percent), 2023-24 (54 percent), and 2024-25 (45 percent), he said.
Before that, the winter of 2018-19 had a 36 percent surplus precipitation, with 2016-17 of 29 percent, and 2012-13 (14 per), he added.
The data highlights a sharp drying trend in core winter precipitation, Arif said.
The independent forecaster said, “With December almost dry, January subpar, and February collapsing nearly 90 per cent below normal, the snowpack generation window has weakened substantially.”
“Such back-to-back winter deficits reduce the natural meltwater buffer that Kashmir traditionally depends on during late spring, summer and autumn,” he said.
Arif asserted that the seven consecutive deficient winters indicate that this is not random variability alone, but a sustained shift in seasonal precipitation patterns.
The repeated winter shortfalls since 2019-20 suggest that there is an increase in the variability of strength and frequency of the Western Disturbances, he said.
Arif also highlighted a greater intra-seasonal concentration of rainfall events and longer dry spells between active phases, he said.
