During his election campaign just like getting the Gaza Ceasefire implemented before his inauguration, which he did, Trump had also promised to get the Russia-Ukraine war ended within 100-days of him taking over the US Presidency.
Curiously, within days of Trump becoming the 47th US President, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he is ready to discuss the war in Ukraine with Donald Trump and suggested it would be a good idea for them to meet. In his first comments since Trump issued threats to inflict economic damage on Russia if it failed to end the war in Ukraine, Putin struck a favourable tone towards the US president.
Putin and the newly inaugurated American president have both said they are ready to meet for talks on Ukraine. Trump has threatened Russia with tougher economic sanctions if Moscow does not agree to end the conflict.
Putin has told a Russian state TV journalist that “We believe the current president’s statements about his readiness to work together. We are always open to this and ready for negotiations. It would be better for us to meet, based on the realities of today, to talk calmly.”
Putin went on to describe his relationship with Trump as “businesslike, pragmatic and trustworthy”. He added that negotiating with Ukraine was complicated by the fact that its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, had signed a decree preventing him from conducting talks with Putin.
In what seems to be an effort to further cosy-up to Trump, Putin echoed the US president’s claim that he would have prevented the war starting in Ukraine in 2022, and parroted Trump’s discredited assertion that the 2020 US elections were “stolen” from him.
Economic sanctions against Russia
Trump’s attempts to persuade Putin to negotiate have been reinforced by threats to escalate pressure on Russia’s already strained economy, including introducing sanctions and tariffs, if Moscow fails to “make a deal” to end the war.
Speaking virtually at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday (23 January) evening, Trump called on OPEC+ to push down global oil prices as a way to hit a vital stream of revenue for the Kremlin. “Right now, the price is high enough that that war will continue,” he said.
Oil and gas revenues have been Russia’s most important source of cash, accounting for a third to a half of federal budget proceeds over the past decade.
While Trump has not given a detailed blueprint for ending the war, his running mate, JD Vance, has suggested Trump could push a “heavily fortified” demilitarised zone at the countries’ borders, freezing the war along the current frontlines.
Trump’s return to the White House has reignited discussions about the possibility of western peacekeeping forces being stationed in Ukraine to help maintain a ceasefire, But the Russian foreign ministry has called the idea “unacceptable”, while also dismissing calls to freeze the war along the frontlines.
Still, the situation remains in flux, and this week Trump made statements that appeared aimed at soothing Moscow. In an interview with Fox News on Thursday (22 January), he described President Zelensky as “no angel” and suggested the Ukrainian leader shared some of the blame for the war’s outbreak. “He shouldn’t have allowed this war to happen.”
In his nightly video address late on Friday (24 January), Zelensky said that Putin was seeking to “manipulate” Trump. “He is trying to manipulate the US president’s desire to achieve peace. I am confident that no Russian manipulations will succeed any longer.” he said.
Kremlin’s response
In its response Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists, “Putin is ready. We are waiting for signals” from the United States.
Peskov said that he could not comment further on a meeting between the leaders, saying it was “hard to read coffee grounds” to predict the future. Peskov also rejected a claim from Trump that the conflict in Ukraine could be ended by lowering the price Russia receives for its oil, saying, “This conflict does not depend on oil prices.”
Peskov said the conflict was instead based on “threats to Russia’s national security” and “threats to Russians” living in Ukraine and “the lack of desire and complete refusal of Americans and Europeans to listen to Russia’s concerns.”
OPEC’s role
Trump, who promised during his campaign to swiftly end the conflict, is now focusing on leveraging OPEC+, the coalition of oil-producing nations, by urging them to cut oil prices to pressure Russia. He believes that reducing oil prices could force Russian President Vladimir Putin to reconsider the war.
However, industry experts believe that pressuring OPEC+ could be difficult. The group has already postponed increasing oil production due to weaker demand and competition from non-member countries.
Trump’s broader strategy
Trump has framed his approach to the Ukraine conflict in economic terms, arguing that leveraging economic pressure on Russia could force Putin to negotiate. Previously president Biden had also adopted a strategy on the same lines but that too was rejected by Saudi Arabia, and Trump faces a similar challenge in navigating the interests of the two largest oil producers within OPEC+.
Trump’s bold strategy highlights his focus on using economic leverage, particularly targeting oil, as a tool to resolve global conflicts – a stark contrast to military interventions and military help to allies, except Israel.
In reality though, Trump is trying to hit two birds with one stone, if he is able to get the oil prices down, then apart from forcing Russia to come to the negotiating table, the move would serve the US domestically, too. Lower oil prices would lead to lower inflation and lower any annoyance against other policies of Trump, if the American public is able to get consumer goods and personal finance at lower costs.
(Asad Mirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant.)
