Valley may experience longer, frequent droughts in future, claim earth scientists
‘Persistent dry spell likely to trigger severe water shortage in summers’
Srinagar: The Kashmir valley is expected to face longer and more frequent droughts, according to the regional earth scientists, who predicted forty years till the end of the 21st century will be drier, given the obvious signs of climate change in Jammu and Kashmir.
A recent study by earth scientists has revealed that the region would have longer and more frequent dry periods as a result of climate change from the middle to the end of the 21st century and that this pattern will become the new normal between 2051 and 2099.
Speaking to the ‘Kashmir Images’, noted earth scientist, who also heads the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST) as its Vice-Chancellor, Professor Shakeel Romshoo ascribed the ongoing prolonged dry spell in Kashmir to the change in weather patterns.
He blamed the alteration in weather patterns caused by El Nino, a recurring series of climatic events that affect parts of the Pacific region.
“A prolonged dry spell that lasted from autumn to winter, coupled with below-average snowfall and unusually high daytime temperatures this winter, could result in summertime water shortages that won’t be enough to meet the demands of Kashmir’s water-intensive paddy farming,” he said.
Since the signs of climate change are clearly visible in Jammu and Kashmir, we have observed a rise in the frequency of droughts in the region over the past several decades, says Romshoo.
“Our research indicates that in future, droughts will occur more frequently and last longer in the Kashmir valley. Out of the 78 years to the end of the 21st century, we observed that the next 40 years are anticipated to be extremely dry years under any of the conceivable climate change scenarios, especially during the fall (autumn),” he said.
He said the snowfall that provides water for irrigation of agriculture and horticulture sectors, is important in winter months especially from December to February.
Dry spell, he said, primarily occurs due to the increasing trend of temperatures during winters observed in the region.
“Snowfall during winters is vital to the Kashmir region as it provides water for irrigation of agriculture and horticulture crops when it melts later in the year during spring and summer; it is very important for the region’s water security,” Romshoo added.
The El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies, Romshoo said, exert strong control on the climate of the Northern Hemisphere.
“But through our research, we have established a strong relationship between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Kashmir region, though the El Nino could also be an indirect factor,” he said.
