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The Statistical Analysis of Corona in J&K

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By: M.Yaseen Lone, Musadiq Husain Khan and M. Maqbool Lone

The novel corona virus popularly known as COVID-19 has hobbled the whole world under its cruel grabs apparently with no instant relief. The situation is alarming in India and this October is proving to be a grim month for India in its fight against this deadly pandemic. While India has surpassed Brazil and attained second spot in the world chronological list of corona, this spread wages a new worry through length and breadth of country. The states and Union territories are more or less equally contributing to this spread. The Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir while joining a line of this new worry can’t be figured out in case of rising caseload of corona virus.

The in-depth analysis of corona virus in Jammu and Kashmir unfolds new dimensions to understand its spread and possible effects on human population. The research/studies regarding the spread of corona virus is miniscule in Jammu and Kashmir with no standard research in public domain. However, falling in fray an honest attempt has been made by Statistical Training Institute Kashmir to Design a Research Study with sole aim to project the spread of corona virus. The Study is blend of analysis being made for Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir, and in particularly for District Srinagar. The study objectively analyses the trend of corona virus spread. It attempted to make projections regarding the spread of corona virus in UT and District Srinagar. This analysis will prove helpful in providing insights to the authorities of Union Territory about the possible consequences of this spread, enabling them to frame accurate health and administrative policies to fight the pandemic.

This case study is based on rigorous statistical methods which assist in understanding the spread of corona virus and possible limit up to which the cases could reach. The forces responsible for spread of corona virus and its growth are themselves stochastic in nature. Yet simple statistical models such as regression models, Logistic equation, result in deterministic predictions. However, smooth convergence to asymptotic results is not what is usually seen, even in rigorous experimental settings. Hence, a more realistic alternative to corona virus spread growth modelling is to confront stochastic equations with the data at hand. In this study, we describe novel application of a stochastic growth model to analyze how different conditions influence corona virus growth dynamics using an extensive experimental data set obtained from Department of Information and Public Relations J&K through news bulletins. We use statistical methods to characterize the pattern of trends on the following aspects of growth in the spread of corona virus:

  1. The rate and duration of stationary phase.
  2. The corona virus density with respect to the population at which the stationary phase occurs.
  3. The variability associated with the spread of corona virus.

This study has applied the traditional stochastic growth modelling to project the possible spread of CORONA Virus in Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir in general and particularly in Srinagar.

From Table – I it is evident that the confirmed cases of Covid -19 reported from the Union Territory of J&K are adding commutatively at an exponential rate. However, the daily confirmed cases of Covid 19 reported in UT of J&K and particularly in the district Srinagar are stationary with respect to the time lag. The conclusion drawn from above graph studies that upto 11th of May 2020 the trend is stationary in nature. From 19th of march 2020 , the spike in cases starts increasing linearly till 4th June 2020 , after which sharp spike in corona cases is evident till 12th of June 2020. However, contrary to previous observations, the spike starts increase exponentially after 14th of July 2020 till date and is yet to attain a peak in near future. For District Srinagar, the observations are more or less synonymous as compared to Union Territory as whole. However, one interesting observation which can be drawn from above graph is that the spike in corona cases is stationary with respect to time in District Srinagar upto 14th of July. The trend shows linear spike in cases till date.

Based on the intensive studies and rigorous modelling the projections of corona spike have been worked out for the month of October which sums up In Table – 2.

The projection of confirmed cases of Covid 19 reported from Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir have been drawn by using traditional  stochastic  time series modelling techniques, which depicts that the spike of the cases reported would continue to be exponential in nature during  the month of October and November . It further demonstrates that the peak would not attain even during the month of November. The reporting rate of Covid 19 positive cases is decreasing with respect to time.

Yaseen Lone is Joint Director, Musadiq Husain Khan, Assistant Director and M. Maqbool Lone, Assistant Director Statistical Training Institute Kashmir. Authors can be reached at Stiksgr@gmail.com

Table – I

 

TABLE- 2

Projection of District Srinagar
Date Positive Cumulative Cases  Cumulative Recoveries   Cumulative Deaths Cases  % of positive cases out of Tests
2nd Oct 15322 12853 304 4.6
3rd Oct 15492 13075 306 4.7
4th Oct 15727 13240 308 4.8
5th Oct 15874 13382 311 5.2
6th Oct 16054 13593 314 4.8
7th Oct 16296 13718 315 4.5
8th Oct 16481 13863 320 5
9th Oct 16649 14058 325 4.5
10th Oct 16818 14285 327 4.7
11th Oct 17057 14448 329 4.8
12th Oct 17200 14588 332 5.2
13th Oct 17380 14803 335 4.8
14th Oct 17625 14922 336 4.4
15th Oct 17810 15066 341 4.9
16th Oct 17977 15262 346 4.5
17th Oct 18144 15494 349 4.6
18th Oct 18387 15656 350 4.8
19th Oct 18527 15793 352 5.1
20th Oct 18706 16012 356 4.7
21st Oct 18955 16127 357 4.4
22nd Oct 19139 16269 362 4.9
23rd Oct 19305 16467 367 4.5
24th Oct 19470 16703 370 4.6
25th Oct 19717 16865 371 4.7
26th Oct 19853 16999 373 5.1
27th Oct 20031 17221 377 4.7
28th Oct 20285 17332 378 4.4
29th Oct 20469 17471 383 4.9
30th Oct 20633 17671 388 4.4
31st Oct 20796 17912 391 4.5

 

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