Washington: India’s nuclear arsenal is estimated at 190 warheads, which includes 30 additional warheads for new missiles under production, according to a US nonprofit policy think tank.
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) derived the estimates from analyses of a combination of open sources, state-originating data and commercial satellite imagery.
“Based on available public information about its nuclear-capable delivery force structure and strategy, we estimate that India may have produced around 190 nuclear warheads,” according to the article titled ‘India’s Nuclear Weapons – 2026’ penned by FAS Nuclear Information Project Director Hans Kristensen.
India’s nuclear arsenal includes over 160 warheads for operational launchers as well as additional warheads for new missiles in production, it said.
The article, published on Wednesday, noted that India continued to modernise its nuclear arsenal, with several new weapon systems fielded in recent years and several more under development to complement or replace existing nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based delivery systems, and sea-based systems.
“We estimate that India may have produced enough military plutonium for 140 to 225 nuclear warheads and might have assembled up to 190. With more weapon systems in development, the country’s warhead stockpile will likely increase further,” it said.
India adopted the no-first-use doctrine after the Pokhran-II nuclear tests in 1998 and continues to adhere to the policy.
“India is committed to maintaining credible minimum deterrence and a posture of ‘no first use’ of nuclear weapons,” the government told Parliament recently.
The FAS article said as of the beginning of 2026, the International Panel on Fissile Materials estimated India to have produced approximately 730 kg (plus/minus about 170 kg) of weapon-grade plutonium.
“Assuming approximately four kilogramme of plutonium per warhead, this would theoretically be sufficient for producing anywhere between 140 and 225 nuclear warheads,” it said.
However, it said the calculation comes with some caveats due to several uncertainties, such as the warhead designs India has produced.
India’s 1998 nuclear tests reliably validated a fission design, but the country’s progress on boosted fission and thermonuclear weapon designs remains highly uncertain, the article said.
“Regardless of the warhead designs, it is unlikely that India has used all its plutonium to produce warheads, and it may have kept some in reserve,” the author noted.
The article stated that the size of India’s nuclear stockpile also depends on the number and types of launchers that can deliver them, as it is unlikely that it would produce significantly more warheads than these systems can launch.
