New Delhi: The number of domestic migrants is estimated to have lowered by around 12 per cent to 40.20 crore between 2011 and 2023, indicating increased economic opportunities across the country, said a report by prime minister’s economic advisory panel EAC-PM.
According to a working paper by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), the number of domestic migrants stood at 40,20,90,396 in 2023, which was 11.78 per cent lower compared to the figure registered as per Census 2011.
The paper titled ‘400 Million Dreams! Examining volume and directions of domestic migration in India using novel high frequency data’, said as per Census 2011, the total number of migrants stood at 45,57,87,621.
“Overall domestic migration in India is slowing. We estimate the overall number of migrants in the country, as of 2023, to be 40,20,90,396. This is about 11.78 per cent lower as compared to the number of migrants enumerated as per Census 2011 (45,57,87,621),” it said.
Consequently, the paper said, the migration rate which stood at 37.64 per cent of total population as per Census 2011, is estimated to have reduced to 28.88 per cent.
“We hypothesize that this is on account of availability of improved services such as education, health, infrastructure and connectivity as well as improved economic opportunities in or near in major sources of migration and is an indicator of overall economic growth,” noted the paper authored by former EAC-PM chairman Bibek Debroy.
The paper used three high-frequency and granular data sets — Indian Railway Unreserved Ticketing System (UTS) data on passenger volumes; mobile telephone subscribers roaming data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), and district level banking data to understand the likely impact of migration at the places of origin.
Looking at the spatial dimensions of travel, the paper said, the top origin districts are coalesced around major urban agglomerations viz. Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata etc.
Not only is this in line with gravity models of migration but perhaps also is a tentative confirmation of priors i.e short distance migration accounts for the largest share of migrants and that distance has a negative effect on labour flows, it added.
The report also noted that the composition of the top five states that attract maximum number of migrants (including intra-state migrants) has changed.
“West Bengal and Rajasthan are the new entrants and while Andhra Pradesh and Bihar are now ranked a notch lower,” it said.
While pointing out that West Bengal, Rajasthan and Karnataka are the states showing the maximum growth in percentage share of the arriving passengers, the report said Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh are the states where the percentage share of total migrants has reduced.
“Mumbai, Bengaluru Urban, Howrah, Central Delhi, Hyderabad are the districts attracting most migrant arrivals, while Valsad, Chittoor, Paschim Bardhaman, Agra, Guntur, Villupuram and Saharsa are the top origin districts,” it said.
As per the paper, at the state level, Uttar Pradesh-Delhi; Gujarat-Maharashtra; Telangana-Andhra Pradesh, and Bihar-Delhi emerge as the primary dyads of movement.
“At the district level, Murshidabad-Kolkata; Paschim Bardhaman-Howrah; Valsad -Mumbai; Chittoor-Bengaluru Urban, and Surat-Mumbai are the most popular routes for migration between districts,” the paper said, adding that this has implications for urban planning as well as for planning of transportation networks.
Using TRAI’s mobile phone roaming data, the report finds that April-June is the high months for movement with November-December witnessing secondary highs.
A secondary high in winter time is perhaps indicative of travel around the festival/marriage season. January, on the other hand, appears to be the month of lowest travel, it said.
As per Census 2011, just five states — Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal — together account for about 48 per cent of the total outbound migrants, which includes within-state migrants as well.
Similarly, just five states — Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu — together account for about 48 per cent of all incoming migrants. This includes within-state migrants as well.
In the period from 1991 to 2001, the compounded annual growth rate of the number of migrants was 2.7 per cent. This increased to 3.7 per cent during 2001 to 2011.
Interestingly, in the period from 1991 to 2001, India’s workforce grew from 3.17 crore to 4.02 crore (an annual average growth of 2.6 per cent), whereas from 2001 to 2011, the workforce grew from 4.02 crore to 4.82 crore (an annual average growth of 1.99 per cent).
