Baramulla: Campaigning has ended. All the political parties have done everything to attract voters towards their parties. The D-Day is here – May 20. Would it be a Monday for NC’s Plough, PC’s Apple, PDP’s Pen and Inkpot or Er Rasheed’s Pressure Cooker; the EVM alone can answer.
Here in this analytical piece, we will try to analyse the situation on the ground without making any conclusions which are left for the readers.
Let’s begin with Kashmir’s grandest old party, JKNC. Traditionally it has won most of the LS polls in this segment. It has a strong voter base. It has some prominent local leaders like Chowdhary Ramzan, Mir Saifullah, M Akbar Lone, Mohammad Shafi Uri and Qaisar Lone. All these have their vote banks.
But the question remains, despite having such powerful leaders in the north Kashmir region, why did the party’s Vice President, Omar Abdullah decide to contest from here, why not any local leader?
JKPC candidate, Sajad Lone has been drumming up that Omar is a “tourist”, an outsider. Agreed, but the fact of the matter is that last checked, Omar won his last Assembly election from Beerwah, the assembly segment that, after delimitation, falls in the Baramulla LS seat.
Let’s have a look at the 2019 LS elections.
NC candidate Mohammad Akbar Lone secured 133,426 votes, defeating People’s Conference candidate Raja Ejaz Ali, who received 103,193 votes. Independent candidate Engineer Rashid garnered 102,168 votes, and PDP candidate Abdul Qayyum Wani obtained 53,530 votes.
NC won by a margin of 30,000 votes. The PC candidate was a new entrant, had no JKPC history, was a cop – so whatever votes he got were purely JKPC votes.
So JKPC, on its own, has one lakh dedicated votes in Kupwara Baramulla districts. JKNC has almost 30000 votes more than PC.
Coming back to today’s election.
In the last LS polls, Budgam and Beerwah were not part of the segment thus untested for JKPC. In the last Assembly both these seats were held by NC and thus the party is likely to have some edge but the fact the three prominent politicians, having good influence in these areas, Hakim Yasin, Nazir Khan and Muntazir Mohiudin are supporting JKPC, Sajad Lone too is not out of race.
In Baramulla-Kupwara, Sajad Lone’s PC has the backing of JK Apni Party and some others, The prominent among them are Ghulam Hassan Mir (Gulmarg), Usman Majeed (Bandipora), Yawar Dilawar Mir (Rafiabad), Safeena Beigh (Baramulla-Wagoora) and Imtiyaz Parray (Sonawari).
He has the solid support of Syed Altaf Bukhari from Uri besides his organisational cadre.
So the votes of these leaders will undoubtedly add to PC’s last vote tally.
Omar Abdullah has a traditional vote bank that may go for him irrespective of who the candidate is.
His local leaders are in full gear to garner votes for him. They have some new entrants like Riyaz Bedar in Pattan and Watali in Kupwara – both former cops. They have been using their influence and that would undoubtedly help Omar.
He has the support of Congress, however, there are only three prominent Congress leaders there – Abdul Rashid, Muzaffar Parray and Saifu-din-Soz, who will be backing him. Syed Basharat Bukhari (Sangrama) and Javed Beg (Baramulla) support him and both have a good chunk of votes in their respective areas.
As far as PDP goes, it finished third in the last LS polls but this time around, it may garner some more votes as its cadres feel humiliated by NC leadership’s unilateral decision of contesting all three Valley seats without consulting with Mehbooba Mufti even though her party was part of both PAGD and INDI Alliance. This very decision made Mehbooba Mufti to fight back and field candidates on all three Kashmir LS seats.
So, NC takes its votes besides that of Congress, Syed Basharat Bukhari and Javed Beg; PC takes its votes besides those of the individual leaders in the segment supporting it and PDP takes its votes. What is the catch?
Er. Rashid … is in the fray in absentia. He already stood second in the last LS polls, but that time it was a different scene. Most of the individual leaders from north Kashmir supported him at that time, this time they are supporting Sajad.
However, he got a shot in the arm as Ghulam Nabi Azad extended support to him. His party’s two prominent leaders, Taj Mohiudin and Shoiab Lone decided to support Er Rashid and that gives him some edge.
His main drawback is that he has no organisational set up which is a must for fighting elections. He may get sympathy votes for being in jail but those may not be enough to win the seat.
CONCLUSION
Baramulla-Kupwara-Budgam LS seat is the most interesting seat to watch. Here myths may break; history may be made; or nothing unconventional may happen. Cross your fingers and wait for June 04, 2024.
