Kolkata: With numbers firmly stacked in its favour, the ruling TMC is set to win four of the five Rajya Sabha seats from West Bengal, while the opposition BJP is expected to secure one, as the announcement of the election schedule set off political manoeuvring and administrative preparations ahead of a high-stakes electoral season.
The biennial polls for the five seats, part of elections to 37 Rajya Sabha seats across 10 states, will be held on March 16.
Given the current arithmetic in the 294-member Assembly, the outcome appears largely predetermined unless any party fields an additional candidate, which would trigger a contest and inject added political drama just weeks before West Bengal heads into an assembly election campaign.
With an effective strength of 218 MLAs and support from several opposition legislators who have crossed over without resigning, the TMC comfortably crosses the required quota of votes per candidate, positioning it to send four MPs to the Upper House.
The BJP, with its tally falling from 77 seats won in the 2021 Assembly polls to around 65 because of resignations, defections, deaths and bypoll setbacks, is nonetheless assured of winning the remaining seat.
“The numbers are clear, but in Bengal politics, even an uncontested election carries political messaging,” a senior ruling party leader said, indicating that candidate selection itself could be designed to send signals ahead of the larger electoral battle.
The five vacancies arise from the completion of terms of TMC MPs Subrata Bakshi, Ritabrata Banerjee and Saket Gokhale, along with the seat vacated after Mausam Benazir Noor resigned and later joined the Congress.
The term of senior advocate and CPI(M) leader Bikas Ranjan Bhattacharya is also ending, and with the Left Front now lacking the numbers to retain it, that seat is widely expected to go to the BJP.
The election is poised to mark a historic political moment: for the first time since 1952, the Left, which had an uninterrupted three-decade rule in the state till 2011, is set to have no representation in the Rajya Sabha from West Bengal.
Bhupesh Gupta and Satyendra Majumdar were the first two Rajya Sabha MPs of the then undivided CPI from the state. Gupta has been a member of the House for a record five consecutive terms till his death in 1981.
The development underscores the decline of the Left Front, which once dominated the state’s political landscape.
The CPI(M)-led Left Front currently has no Lok Sabha member from West Bengal and no representation in the state Assembly either, signalling a complete erosion of its footprint in both state and national legislatures from the state.
The Congress presently does not have any representation from Bengal in the Upper House, as it has no MLAs in the state assembly.
“A chapter in Bengal’s political history is effectively closing,” said a veteran political observer, adding that the Upper House exit symbolises the shrinking relevance of Left politics in present-day electoral equations in Bengal.
Though the numbers leave little suspense, the Rajya Sabha election carries significant political symbolism.
It comes at a time when both the ruling party and the BJP are sharpening narratives ahead of the assembly elections expected within the next two months, turning even a routine Upper House poll into a test of discipline, messaging and momentum.
A BJP leader said the party sees the election as “an opportunity to show that the opposition space remains alive and competitive in Bengal.” For the TMC, retaining four seats would reinforce its dominance in the Assembly and project organisational stability ahead of an intense campaign for the state polls.
For the BJP, securing one seat offers an opportunity to project continued relevance despite the erosion in its legislative strength since 2021.
Candidate selection itself is being watched closely. The TMC has remained tight-lipped on its nominees, fuelling speculation about a combination of experienced leaders and possible new faces.
Some of its present members including Bakshi, the party’s state president and one of the most trusted lieutenants of TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee, are likely to be repeated.
In the BJP camp, names doing the rounds include former MP Locket Chatterjee and actor-politician Mithun Chakraborty, although no official announcement has yet been made.
Political observers note that the Rajya Sabha polls on March 16 will unfold under the shadow of the upcoming assembly elections, the schedule of which could be announced around the same time.
Such an overlap would place additional pressure on political parties and election machinery, as MLAs engaged in campaigning would still need to return and vote under party whips.
“The Rajya Sabha election may be routine on paper, but politically it’s a marker of where each party stands before the real war begins,” said a senior TMC legislator.
