The Hindu Kush Himalaya is often described as the world’s “Third Pole”, that feeds some of the largest river systems across South, Central, and East Asia. From the Indus to the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Salween, and Yangtze, millions of people depend on the snow and ice stored in these mountains. For Kashmir and neighbouring western Himalayan regions, winter snowfall is not just a seasonal spectacle; it is a natural water storage system that sustains springs, rivers, soils, agriculture, hydropower, and ecosystems during the spring and early summer months. But in recent years, a worrying pattern has begun to emerge across many parts of the region described as snow drought.
Snow drought occurs when winter snow accumulation is unusually low, short, or melts earlier than expected. This may happen either because less snow falls during the season, or because warmer winter conditions cause more precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow, especially in mid elevation mountain belts. Unlike rainfall droughts, whose effects are felt immediately, snow drought has delayed impacts that become visible months later by shrinking spring flows, lower soil-moisture recharge, reduced stream discharge, and early onset of seasonal water stress.
Recent assessments of snow conditions across the Himalayan region indicate successive years of below normal snow persistence, meaning that snow remains on the ground for a shorter part of the winter season than it did historically. Over a monitoring period spanning more than two decades, scientists have observed strong fluctuations in snow persistence, with the last few years including some of the lowest seasonal snow-retention values recorded in that timeframe. In certain basins, snow persistence in 2025 was reported to be well below long-term average conditions, while others showed continuing deficits following earlier weak-snow seasons. Taken together, these repeated anomalies point toward an emerging pattern rather than isolated one-year events.
For Kashmir, these regional signals are deeply relevant. Much of the spring and early-summer flow in snow-fed rivers and tributaries originates from accumulated winter snow in the upper mountains. When snowfall is delayed or short-lived, the reduction is not always visible immediately; it appears later as weaker streamflows, earlier drying of small channels, and declining discharge in springs that many rural communities still depend on. In several parts of the Valley, residents increasingly report that local springs and hill-slope channels do not sustain flow as long into the dry season as they once did, especially following winters with prolonged dry spells or limited snow accumulation.
The implications extend well beyond hydrology. Apple orchards, saffron fields, forests, and pastures rely on the gradual release of meltwater during the transition from winter to spring. Repeated snow-deficit seasons can increase moisture stress during critical growth periods, affecting agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Hydropower systems, which depend on predictable seasonal inflow patterns, face greater operational uncertainty in low-snow years. Winter tourism too becomes more vulnerable, as periods of reliable snow cover either shrink or shift later into the season, affecting communities whose livelihoods depend on snow-related activities.
What makes the present situation particularly concerning is the combination of successive below normal snow years and high annual variability. Rising winter temperatures, altered behaviour of Western Disturbances, and increasing rain instead of snow events at mid-elevations contribute to shorter snow-retention periods, even in winters that still witness occasional heavy snowfall. A single strong snowstorm cannot compensate for an entire season in which snow does not persist long enough to act as effective natural storage. The challenge, therefore, lies not only in how much snow falls, but how long the snow stays and how it melts.
The basin wise observations from recent snow assessments also underline the diversity of impacts across the region. Some basins have recorded sharp negative anomalies in snow persistence — in some years exceeding several tens of percent below normal, while others reflect extended sequences of moderate but continuous deficits. Even relatively modest declines in the range of 10 to 20 % below long-term seasonal norms can have meaningful consequences for early-summer water availability, particularly in mountain and plateau communities where alternatives to meltwater are limited. This reinforces the need for basinspecific interpretation and adaptation, rather than assuming uniform impacts across the wider Himalayan arc.
For Kashmir, the way forward requires moving beyond short term, reactive measures toward a science informed approach to winter water resilience. This includes expanding snow- and climate-monitoring stations across mountain catchments, systematically documenting changes in spring discharge and streamflow patterns, and protecting wetlands, recharge zones, forests, and traditional spring systems that act as natural buffers during dry periods. Community based water conservation practices, winter storage initiatives, and local awareness programs can also play a meaningful role in enhancing resilience at household and village scales.
Equally crucial is the need for stronger collaboration between scientific institutions, water-resource agencies, agricultural departments, disaster-management authorities, and local communities. Research in fields such as snow hydrology, climate analysis, and water source tracing can help generate locally relevant insights into how snow drought processes are evolving and what they mean for Kashmir’s long-term water security. Translating this knowledge into practical planning and policy action will determine how effectively the region is able to cope with the challenges ahead.
Snow in the Himalaya is far more than a seasonal feature of the landscape as it is a pillar of regional water stability and an essential component of life and livelihoods. The emerging pattern of snow-deficit winters across several major river basins must be treated as a warning rather than a passing irregularity. If repeated snow shortages continue unchecked, they could gradually reshape hydrological cycles, intensify early-summer water stress, and deepen socio-economic vulnerabilities for communities from the high mountains to the plains. The choices made today, both in Kashmir and across the wider Himalayan region, will shape the future of water security for generations to come.
Author bio:
Dr. Tanveer Ali Dar is a Postdoctoral Researcher at the University of Massachusetts Amherst. He completed his PhD in Earth Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Roorkee. His research focuses on water resources, climate variability, and groundwater surface-water interactions in mountain regions, including the Himalaya. He has published widely on hydrological and environmental change and is actively engaged in research and outreach on climate water resilience.
The writer is Postdoctoral Researcher Department of Earth, Geographic, and Climate Sciences (EGCS), University of Massachusetts, Amherst. tanvirdar13@gmail.com
