Budgam: With three Agas filing nomination papers for the Budgam Assembly constituency — which goes to polls on November 11 — the entire contest is turning into a dramatic affair, leaving people wondering which way the results will swing.
Candidates of the ruling National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Monday filed their nomination papers for the bypolls to the Budgam segment in central Kashmir. Meanwhile, NC’s sitting MP, Aga Ruhullah, made it clear that he will not be part of his party’s poll campaign, choosing instead to leave for Delhi.
The NC has fielded veteran Shia leader Aga Mehmood as its candidate, the BJP has nominated Aga Syed Mohsin, and the PDP has announced Aga Muntazir Mehdi, son of a veteran Shia Hurriyat leader, as its candidate.
With three Agas in the fray — two of whom, Aga Mehmood and Aga Muntazir, come from widely respected lineages — the Shia vote is expected to split. As for the third Aga, Syed Mohsin, little is known about him locally, but what’s clear is that the Shia community’s votes are likely to get divided.
The most important development: NC MP Aga Ruhullah has chosen to stay away from campaigning for his own party, creating uncertainty about NC’s prospects.
What about the rest of the electorate? Among the others in the contest are Muntazir Mohiudin, who supported Omar Abdullah in the last Assembly elections and recently resigned from the Apni Party to contest as an independent, and Nazir Ahmad Khan of MP Rashid Sheikh’s Awami Itehad Party (AIP).
Analysts say that while Nazir Khan may attract some support from pockets within the Budgam segment, his main base remains Beerwah, which does not fall within this constituency.
“Muntazir Mohiudin could, however, emerge as a key player,” political observers note. “He commands a significant chunk of votes, and Aga Ruhullah’s absence from the campaign could work in his favor. With the Shia vote expected to split, both Mohiudin and Khan are likely to benefit.”
Aga Ruhullah’s decision to stay on the sidelines has made the NC’s campaign far more complicated. While his supporters claim he will not back any candidate, some insiders suggest that he has quietly extended his support to independent candidate Mohiudin.
Before the nomination process, NC was widely seen as the front-runner. However, the moment MP Aga Ruhullah distanced himself from the campaign, the dynamics changed dramatically.
“It’s now an open contest,” said a senior journalist from the district. “The PDP has fair chances, followed by independent Muntazir Mohiudin and then the NC. But this could easily shift, as there is no concrete evidence of how much influence MP Aga Ruhullah actually holds among Budgam voters.”
The journalist further added that Chief Minister Omar Abdullah may be receiving inaccurate assessments about the extent of Ruhullah’s influence in the constituency.
