By: Mohd Younus Bhat
Yesterday evening during a walk with my cousin, Advocate Zia Sultan, our chat turned thoughtful as we discussed the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS) report highlighting Kashmir’s declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 2.1 to 1.4. As we passed a modest home, our eyes caught a woman in her 40s standing quietly on a balcony—elegant, probably educated, yet visibly burdened. Her stillness spoke of silent struggles—loneliness, delayed motherhood, and societal expectations misaligned with reality.
Our thoughts soon drifted to Mr. X, a mutual friend. Well-qualified and ambitious, yet unmarried and financially constrained, he too is caught between dreams and delay. His story echoes a growing pattern: late marriages are now common, but they are costing us dearly. Kashmir’s fertility has dropped below replacement levels. Rising infertility, stress, lifestyle shifts, and environmental exposures are creating a quiet health crisis. That evening walk became a mirror to a deeper issue—not just about numbers, but about people around us, quietly caught in the ticking pause between intention and time.
Once rooted in a culture of early unions and large families, Kashmir is now going through a profound demographic transformation. The region is witnessing a consistent fall in total fertility rate (TFR), with most births now occurring before the age of 30 and a sharp decline thereafter. Urban families are increasingly opting for fewer children, reflecting broader social shifts toward career aspirations, economic constraints, and evolving personal values.
At the heart of this fertility crisis is the widespread delay in marriage. Young Kashmiris are marrying later than ever before, influenced by prolonged education, a volatile job market, rising marriage expenses, and social uncertainty. While these delays may reflect empowerment and personal choice, they also come at a biological cost. Natural fertility declines with age, particularly for women, reducing the window for safe and healthy childbearing. The reliance on assisted reproductive technologies is rising but remains unaffordable and inaccessible for most.
The implications extend far beyond the reproductive domain. As families shrink, traditional care systems begin to crumble. With fewer children to support elderly parents, intergenerational bonds weaken, and a rising number of aged individuals are left without adequate support. Mental health concerns are quietly escalating among the unmarried population due to social isolation and anxiety about future companionship and parenting. The region may also face worsening gender disparities as son preference persists, even with declining birth rates.
Economically, a sustained drop in fertility threatens to shrink the working-age population. In the long term, this means slower economic growth, increased fiscal pressure on pension and healthcare systems, and an imbalance between dependents and active workers. For a region already burdened by political and social instability, demographic imbalance could deepen unrest, trigger increased migration, and fracture social cohesion.
These challenges raise critical questions:
- What is the ideal age and approach to marriage in the context of modern Kashmir?
Answer: The ideal age for marriage is not a fixed number, but it should align with biological, emotional, and social readiness—ideally between 25 and 30, when individuals are mature enough to make responsible life choices yet still within their peak reproductive years. The approach should emphasize companionship, shared responsibility, and long-term vision over financial transactions like dowry. It must balance modern aspirations with timely family planning, encouraging youth to view marriage as a journey of growth, not a burden.
- Can fertility decline be reversed through policy or social reform?
Answer: Yes—but only with comprehensive, sustained efforts. Fertility decline is not irreversible. Countries like Hungary and South Korea are experimenting with pro-natal policies such as childcare subsidies, paid parental leave, housing benefits, and support for working mothers. In Kashmir, targeted reforms—alongside destigmatizing early marriage and addressing gender bias—can gradually nudge the curve upward. However, such policies must be culturally sensitive and focus on enabling choices, not enforcing norms.
- What are the implications for healthcare, education, and economic policy?
Answer: Healthcare systems must prepare for a growing elderly population, including geriatric care, mental health support, and chronic disease management. Education policy should incorporate reproductive health literacy from high school onwards, teaching the biological consequences of delayed parenthood. Economic policy needs to incentivize early family formation by creating secure jobs, particularly for young adults and women, and providing economic relief for newly married couples and young parents.
- How can reproductive rights and cultural values be harmonized?
Answer: By encouraging informed choice. Reproductive rights advocate for autonomy, but autonomy also includes access to accurate information about fertility timelines. Cultural values can reinforce this, provided they evolve to support gender equality and mutual respect in marriage. Clerics and community leaders must recognize that advocating for timely marriage is not a regression to outdated norms, but a response to a changing world that still respects religious and social frameworks.
- What role do community structures play in either accelerating or reversing these trends?
Answer: A powerful one. Families, religious institutions, schools, and local NGOs are the social pillars that can either entrench harmful practices like dowry and late, extravagant weddings—or reverse them through example, education, and community support. Marriage counseling centers, intergenerational dialogues, and mentorship programs can reshape expectations around marriage, while village elders, teachers, and clerics must proactively address rising isolation among unmarried youth with compassion, not criticism.
The Need of the Hour
This demographic crossroads demands more than data—it demands dialogue, courage, and cooperation. Government authorities must introduce marriage-friendly policies: affordable housing, employment guarantees, tax benefits for young families, and incentives for early childcare. Public health campaigns should normalize timely marriage and parenthood, dispelling myths and anxiety around reproductive health. Teachers can integrate these topics into curricula, preparing students to make informed decisions that align with both their dreams and biology.
Society must tackle the stigma around marriage timing head-on. Clerics and religious scholars—trusted voices in every neighbourhood—must emphasize that early, responsible marriage is not against progress but a step toward balanced, meaningful living. NGOs should work at the grassroots to educate families on the unseen costs of marriage delays and fertility decline, especially in rural and conservative areas where awareness is limited.
And above all, we must reimagine gender roles. Women should be empowered not just with degrees, but with jobs that offer dignity, balance, and growth. Men must be taught to reject harmful traditions like dowry and see marriage as a partnership, not a financial deal.
Kashmir stands at a crucial juncture. If the current trends continue unchecked, the valley may face an aging, shrinking population, rising loneliness, and socioeconomic decline. But with unity of purpose, policy innovation, and bold societal reflection, this challenge can be turned into a renewal. It’s not just about saving numbers—it’s about saving futures, communities, and the shared dream of a thriving, youthful, and hopeful Kashmir.
The writer is a Senior Research Scholar, Department of Earth Sciences, Pondicherry University.
