Asad Mirza
The once honky-dory relationship between Pakistani military and its protégé, the Taliban in Afghanistan has gone sour. After Taliban’s return to power in 2021 for the second time, Pakistan has recognisedit as a legitimate government and provided military assistance to it.
But it would be naïve to describe relations between Pakistan and Taliban 2.0 as honky dory. Within months after coming back to power, Taliban raised the issue of an ongoing Pakistani project to erect fencing along the shared border between Afghanistan and Pakistan (Durand Line) – the demarcation of which prior Afghan governments have never accepted. In fact, the skirmishes between the two sides started in early 2022.
Also, contrary to expectations, the Taliban 2.0 refused to bow to different Pakistani demands and pursued the path of governance all alone. But in this process their efforts to establish peace and an effective government in Afghanistan, were hampered by the infighting amongst their internal factions, viz, the Haqqani network; the political wing led by Mullah Abdul GhaniBaradar; and the military wing represented by Mullah Muhammad Yaqoob and Mullah Abdul QayamZakir.
In addition, crucially the Taliban 2.0 has also failed to rein-in the remaining terrorist elements after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
These splinter terrorist groups include elements of Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K), a jihadist group which seeks to create a caliphate across South and Central Asia. During the last three years, the outfit has carried out several terror attacks in Afghanistan and continues to mock Taliban 2.0’s desire for international legitimacy, a message that has resonated with many disaffected Afghans.
Meanwhile, the armed resistance is growing elsewhere too, with the anti-Taliban group the Afghanistan Freedom Front (AFF) – led by former General Yasin Zia – becoming increasingly emboldened in carrying out attacks on Taliban forces throughout the country.
As per reports, the AFF is cooperating with the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF), led by Ahmad Massoud, son of anti-Soviet military leader and Afghan hero Ahmad Shah Massoud.
But in its current standoff the group which bristles the Pakistan most is Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or the Haqqani network. Though the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan and the TTP, which Pakistan calls a threat, are separate but allied groups.
Following the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, Pakistan witnessed a spike in terror attacks as the new regime got emboldened and strengthened the TTP. The TTP aims to establish an Islamic emirate in Pakistan, just like its brother-outfit did in Kabul.
A report by the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies revealed a 56% rise in fatalities from terror attacks in Pakistan in 2023 compared to 2022, with over 1,500 killed, including 500 security personnel.
The relationship between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan’s government has been further strained after Islamabad accused the Kabul regime of cross-border terrorism. Islamabad has imposed trade restrictions, expelled some 5,00,000 undocumented Afghan migrants, and put in a stricter visa policy. Military actions against the TTP have continued too.
Pakistan, which had hoped Kabul would take care of the TTP, has turned hostile to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan after lack of action.
The current escalation began with Pakistani airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, specifically in the Paktika province. These airstrikes, aimed at dismantling a training facility and targeting TTP training camps, resulted in the deaths of 46 people, mostly women and children, according to Taliban officials.
A Pakistani official said the strikes targeted “terrorist hideouts inside Afghanistan, using a mix of jets and drones”.
The Taliban spokesman in Kabul said that the defence ministry vowed retaliation for the attack that it called “barbaric” and a “clear aggression”. Afghanistan’s Foreign Ministry in Kabul also summoned the Pakistani envoy and lodged a strong protest over the strikes.
That is why around 15,000 Taliban fighters are reportedly marching from Kabul, Kandahar, and Herat towards the Mir Ali border adjoining Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, to launch a major offensive against Pakistan.
The Pakistani military strike on Afghan territory came just days after the TTP attacked a checkpoint in the country’s northwest, resulting in the deaths of 16 Pakistani soldiers.
The souring of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan is, therefore, a result of Pakistan’s long-standing policy of supporting terror groups in the region, a policy whose outcome was foreseen by security experts.
TTP, although a separate terror group from the one in Kabul, is known to have a tacit understanding with the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan claims that the Kabul Taliban is unwilling to act along the porous Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and that is complicating the situation.
Pakistan’s long game of playing both sides with the Taliban has come back to bite it, proving the adage. What Pakistan once nurtured as a strategic asset is now a volatile force threatening its own stability.
(AsadMirza is a New Delhi-based senior commentator on national, international, defence and strategic affairs, environmental issues, an interfaith practitioner, and a media consultant.)
