By: Ikkz Ikbal
After a decade-long hiatus, Jammu and Kashmir successfully concluded its Assembly elections in 2024. The results will be declared on October 08. These elections hold immense significance, as they are the first to be conducted after the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, which stripped the region of its special constitutional status. Since then, the political landscape in J&K has undergone radical shifts, with many long-standing factions fading into irrelevance while new dynamics emerge.
Political Reawakening: People Taking Part in the Process
The atmosphere in J&K during these elections was notably different from what has been seen in the past. Despite years of disenchantment and boycotts, there was a visible resurgence of political activity among the people. Citizens were actively engaging with the process, driven by a complex mixture of hope, skepticism, and pragmatism. For many, this election represents an opportunity to influence the region’s governance, even if their expectations are tempered by recent history.
The Decline of Hurriyat and Separatist Movements
One of the most striking aspects of this political revival is the diminishing influence of the Hurriyat Conference and other separatist factions. Once dominant in shaping the region’s political discourse, these groups have become almost irrelevant in the current political climate. The reasons are manifold: increased government crackdowns, internal divisions, and the growing realization among the people that separatist rhetoric has led to little tangible change over the years. The separatist ideology, once a powerful force, has lost its hold as people shift their focus to more immediate issues like governance, development, and local autonomy.
Jamaat-e-Islami: From Banned Group to Political Participant
Perhaps the most unexpected development was the active participation of Jamaat-e-Islami in the electoral process. Despite an ongoing extension of the ban on the organization due to its alleged links with militant groups, the Jamaat has managed to embed itself in the political discourse. This move signals a shift from ideological opposition to pragmatic engagement, as the party seeks to represent its followers within the formal political structure. Its involvement underscores how traditional oppositional forces are being absorbed into the mainstream political fold, perhaps as a survival strategy.
Ground Realities: Has Anything Changed Since 2019?
For the common people of J&K, however, the story is one of skepticism. Despite the central government’s promises of development and peace after the abrogation of Article 370, many believe that little has changed on the ground. The infrastructure, employment opportunities, and daily lives of the people remain largely unchanged, fostering a sense of disillusionment. While the official narrative suggests that the abrogation has paved the way for progress, the people are yet to see meaningful outcomes in their lives.
Boycott Sentiments: Fading or Evolving?
While election boycotts were once a powerful form of protest in the region, their influence seems to have waned. This election cycle has seen a significant drop in boycott activity. However, this does not imply that the sentiment behind boycotts has disappeared. On the contrary, many still feel disenfranchised and distrustful of the political process, but they no longer see boycotting as an effective tool for change. Instead, there is a sense of self-censorship in the face of fear and possible repercussions for open dissent. The people may have become more pragmatic, but they have not forgotten their concerns about representation and autonomy.
The Diminishing Influence of Pakistan
Another notable change in the political atmosphere of J&K is the erosion of pro-Pakistan sentiments. Once a significant element of the separatist narrative, these feelings have been steadily declining, especially in light of Pakistan’s own political instability. The chaos in Pakistan has disillusioned many in J&K who once viewed the neighboring country as a possible alternative to Indian rule. Today, the idea of aligning with Pakistan holds little appeal for the average Kashmiri, who now prioritizes stability and governance over distant political ideals.
Restoration of Article 370 and Statehood: A Distant Dream?
Amidst all these developments, the restoration of Article 370 and statehood remain core issues for many in J&K. People still hope for the return of these privileges, believing they are essential for safeguarding the region’s identity and autonomy. However, there is a growing consensus that even if the elections lead to the restoration of statehood, the legislative assembly will wield little power. Many fear that the Assembly will function more like a municipal body and that the next CM will be like elevated mayor, with limited control over major policy decisions. This fear underscores the widespread belief that, while elections may bring a change in leadership, they are unlikely to bring about a meaningful shift in governance.
Conclusion: Elections as a Step, Not a Solution
As we wait for the results of 2024 Assembly elections, the political future of Jammu and Kashmir stands at a crossroads. The political environment is more active than it has been in years, yet there remains a pervasive sense of uncertainty about what these elections will truly accomplish. While separatist movements have lost ground and mainstream politics is seeing greater participation, the ground realities of governance and development remain largely unchanged. The people of J&K are engaging with the process, but many do so with the belief that the Assembly will offer little more than symbolic power. The hope for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood lingers in the background, but for now, the elections represent just one more step in a long journey toward meaningful change in the region.
While challenges persist, the resilience of the people and their desire for peace and prosperity could pave the way for a brighter future. It is this hope that keeps the region moving forward, with the aspiration that true progress, stability, and harmony will soon follow.
The writer has a PG in Biotechnology and is Administrator Maryam Memorial Institute Pandithpora Qaziabad. He tweets @IkkzIkbal
