Dubai: Negotiators have been urged to narrow down their options so they can agree on how to save Earth from disastrous levels of warming and help vulnerable societies adapt to weather extremes as the clock runs down on United Nations climate talks.
COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber told journalists Sunday afternoon that negotiators were “making good progress”, just not fast enough.
“Am I satisfied with the speed and the pace?” al-Jaber said, as protesters could be heard nearby calling for the end of fossil fuels. “The answer is no. … Time has come for us to shift gears. Time has come for us to deliver.”
There some were signs negotiators were moving forward on Sunday: A new draft agreement on global adaptation goals — which will determine how poor countries will brace themselves for climate change-fuelled weather extremes like drought, heat and storms — was released.
The draft text expresses concern over the gap between the money needed for adaptation and how much countries are getting, but it doesn’t say exactly how much cash countries need to adapt to climate change.
One option in the draft proposes an assessment of each country’s vulnerability to climate change by 2025 and to establish early warning systems for extreme weather events by 2027. Another option is for countries to come up with national adaptation plans and implement them by 2030.
The new draft “presents the skeleton of what could be a reasonable framework” on how to adapt to climate change, said Ana Mulio Alvarez of climate think tank E3G, but to be effective, adapting to climate change “requires developed countries to provide support to developing countries” to actually enact plans.
Mohamed Adow of climate think tank Power Shift Africa said that the draft “sets clear targets, but overall the text is weak” as it doesn’t adequately address how to finance adaptation.
Thibyan Ibrahim from the Small Islands Developing States negotiating bloc called the progress on adaptation “a bit disappointing”.
A draft text on the Global Stocktake — the part of the negotiations that assesses where the world is at with curbing warming and how countries can stick to climate goals — were still stuffed with several options over how to phase-out planet-warming fossil fuels.
“Now is the time to shift gears and get to consensus,” COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber said in a plenary session late Saturday.
Shantal Munro-Knight, a climate negotiator for Barbados, said motivation to get a strong deal among countries was high.
“I don’t think anyone wants to go away from the COP without a really ambitious program, and that’s where I think everybody is. You didn’t hear negative pushback too much because we are all in that moment,” Munro-Knight said.
But Marshall Islands Climate Envoy Tina Stege acknowledged “there is a lot more work that needs to be done. The presidency has a lot on its plate and we don’t have a lot of time”.
Sticking points are along familiar lines for negotiators, with some countries wanting to see strong language on phasing out the use of fossil fuel while others are hesitant to have forceful language on the issue because they’re continue to develop their oil, gas or coal industries.
“It’s very clear that there is a group of countries here that don’t want to phase out fossil fuels,” said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan. Small island states, Latin American countries and European countries are pushing for a phase-out, but other nations are “still far apart”.
“It’s going to be very difficult,” Morgan said. “I’m a bit worried.”
Rachel Cleetus of the Union of Concerned Scientists told journalists Sunday that “the big laggards, the ones being obstinate, is definitely Saudi Arabia and the OPEC countries”, the powerful oil cartel.
Brandon Wu of ActionAid USA also criticized America’s plans to expand oil and gas production.
“I think it’s quite easy to point the finger at some of the Gulf states here,” Wu said. “But, you know, we should not ignore the fact that the United States has the single largest oil and gas expansion plans of any country in the world by far. It’s not even close.”
Democratic US Sen. Ed Markey from Massachusetts, acknowledged the Ukraine war boosted domestic natural gas production because “the LNG industry in the United States saw an opportunity to dramatically expand its footprint”.
But he added: “We cannot preach temperance from a bar stool. We cannot tell the rest of the world you should move toward a renewable energy future if we ourselves are spreading this LNG poison around the world.”
Meanwhile, an analysis by the Paris-based International Energy Agency on Sunday found that the several pledges made at COP28 to move to clean energy — hundreds of countries promised to triple renewables and double energy efficiency and several oil and gas companies pledged to slash their methane emissions — were nowhere near what’s needed to cap warming to to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since preindustrial times.
If countries and companies kept their promises, it would result in around four gigatons fewer of carbon pollution globally by 2030. That covers about 30 per cent of the “emissions gap” — the difference between how much the world is currently emitting and how much it can emit if the world is to meet its climate goals.
“We are seeing positive developments at COP28,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, but “there is a need for more countries and companies to join the pledges – and for agreement on an orderly and just decline of global fossil fuel use”.
Some observers on Sunday were cautiously optimistic about the progress so far.
“We are close to making history here,” said Kaisa Kosonen, Policy Coordinator at Greenpeace International. “Never before have I seen this level of pressure, with people saying let’s just do it. They are finally addressing the root cause of climate change.”
